Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if the Connect Bay Area measure appears on the November 2026 ballot in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties. The measure can be placed on the ballot either through action by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission or via a citizen's initiative. The citizen initiative path requires over 186,000 signatures by June 6, 2026. The market resolves NO if neither path successfully places the measure on the November 2026 ballot.
Background
Governor Newsom signed Senate Bill 63 in December 2025, authorizing a November 2026 ballot measure to prevent major service cuts at BART and other Bay Area transit systems. Bay Area transit agencies face annual deficits of more than $800 million annually starting in fiscal year 2027-28. The measure would increase the sales tax in Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties by a half cent and one cent in San Francisco County for 14 years, generating approximately $980 million annually. The Connect Bay Area Transit Committee has already raised nearly $3 million and begun signature gathering to qualify the measure for the ballot.
Considerations
Government-placed measures require a two-thirds vote to pass, whereas citizen initiatives require only a 50% vote. Previous polling suggests that achieving two-thirds support may be challenging but that 50% support is feasible. A survey found that 59% of Bay Area voters would support the proposed regional sales tax measure.
1,000