https://manifold.markets/EmilAbraham/will-we-see-the-transit-funding-ini

Resolution Criteria

The measure will resolve YES if approved by voters at the November 2026 ballot. Since the measure is being pursued as a citizen's initiative, it requires only a simple majority (50% plus one) to pass, rather than the two-thirds threshold typically required for tax measures placed by government entities.

The measure must first qualify for the ballot. A signature gathering campaign will run through May 2026, requiring over 186,000 signatures (5% of the over 3.7 million residents of all five counties) to qualify for the November 3, 2026 General Election.

Resolution will be determined by official election results from California's Secretary of State for the November 2026 general election.

If the initiative never makes it onto the ballot, this market resolves N/A

Background

SB 63 authorizes placement of a 14-year regional transportation sales tax on the November 2026 ballot in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, which would include a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and up to a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco, generating approximately $1 billion annually.

BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit face annual deficits of more than $800 million annually starting in fiscal year 2027-28. If approved, the measure will prevent deep service cuts to BART, Caltrain, Muni, AC Transit, and other transit services, fund regional transit integration initiatives, and generate flexible funds for counties to spend on other transit-related priorities.

Considerations

A recent poll of likely November 2026 voters showed strong majority support for the measure. Historically, transit funding measures have performed well: in 2024, voters approved 51 out of 61 public transit measures, an 86.7% win rate.