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shouldn’t we wait until 2030?

@ian As stated, this would resolve no if GPT-5 was released. Arguably, if the US does impose restrictions that could counterfactually have prevented the training of GPT-5, then this should have resolved yes. I admit the resolution criteria could have been better clarified.

Title seems misleadingly general given the description.

Note that this market will resolve no in the case that the market below resolves yes.

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@Elspeth Wait, why? The title of this market means something very different to what you have in mind in that case. By the title any new regulation that comes out before Jan 1st 2030 should resolve to yes and the release of a new more powerful model before then should have nothing to do with resolving the market.

@DarklyMade Okay, I see your point. The intention was that if GPT-5 is released, then the US will have failed to impose sufficient restrictions. I should have been more precise in my market description.

Would this include restrictions into the use of of AI-capable hardware in resolving to YES?

@PipFoweraker If it's used in training AIs above a certain level, yes.

How will this resolve if temporary restrictions are imposed, but the restrictions are ended or loosened before 2030?

@EvanTh wouldn't the first resolve YES have triggered payout?

@EvanTh They will have to last at least a year.

possible arb here https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/contingent-on-ai-being-perceived-as

I anticipate restrictions, but not restrictions that will prevent the development of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 emerging before 2030.