Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
Plus
67
Ṁ65972030
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve yes if the US imposes restrictions that are sufficient to prevent the training of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Elspeth Wait, why? The title of this market means something very different to what you have in mind in that case. By the title any new regulation that comes out before Jan 1st 2030 should resolve to yes and the release of a new more powerful model before then should have nothing to do with resolving the market.
@DarklyMade Okay, I see your point. The intention was that if GPT-5 is released, then the US will have failed to impose sufficient restrictions. I should have been more precise in my market description.
Related questions
Related questions
100GW AI training run before 2031?
36% chance
If Biden is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
25% chance
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
5% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
20% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
32% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
44% chance
The US, UK or EU put limits on training of AI models (eg $ spent) before 2024?
15% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
50% chance