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MANIFOLD
Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?
13
Ṁ2.5kṀ436
2031
55%
chance

Resolves YES if, before 2031-12-30, any state bill takes effect in Texas that does at least one of the following with respect to hormone replacement therapy for gender transition purposes for adults:

Bans or criminalizes prescribing, dispensing, or administering HRT for gender transition

Restricts which provider types can prescribe HRT for gender transition (e.g., physician-only requirements that exclude NPs, PAs)

Mandates psychiatric or psychological evaluation as a prerequisite for receiving HRT for gender transition

Resolves NO if none of the above occur before the close date.

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I'm curious to see what traders think in light of the 2026 election results.

The description and the title seem to contradict a little bit, would a federal ban count?

@AAR Thank you for pointing that out. No, it wouldn't.