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Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?
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Dec 31
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This refers to the Multiple Choice market type which maintains a total percentage across all options, not the Set type.

To enable easier trading on markets like "Who will be in the top 5" or "Which of these 10 will be selected", it would be possible to set up a market with enough Yes shares that 10 separate answers could all resolve to 100%.

The new market structure must improve capital efficiency compared to the existing structure of "All 5 resolve to 20% each" that people sometimes do. I'm the final arbiter of whether something counts.

Resolves Yes if Manifold implements this before 2027 and it goes live long enough for at least one market to be created. Resolves No otherwise.

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Would this be "resolves to exactly n", rather than "at most n"?

I assume the intent is something with improved capital efficiency vs. the current workaround of "resolves equally across n options".

@EvanDaniel This is intended to be for "exactly N".

Now that you mention it, it seems like a virtual guarantee that they would invent some worse scheme than the one that is in your head, brand it as "resolves to N", and then I have to decide whether it counts for this market.

I'm going to add a clause to the description that it has to meet a capital efficiency requirement that is inside my head and not published anywhere but based on vibes.

Set questions do this I think

@ItsMe has to be the kind with auto balancing.

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