Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES for any answer if, before the market close date, Elon Musk makes public statements that clearly contradict the scientific consensus position described in that answer. Specifically:
For "Climate change is real and caused by humans": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that climate change is not real, not happening, or not significantly caused by human activity.
For "Vaccines are safe": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that vaccines in general are unsafe, harmful, or more dangerous than the diseases they prevent. Coming out against mRNA vaccines counts if and only if there's a clear scientific consensus that they are safe.
Statements must be explicitly made on Musk's verified social media accounts, in interviews with established media outlets, in public speeches, or through other verifiable channels. A retweet or implicit endorsement doesn't count
The market will resolve NO for answers where Musk does not contradict the consensus position.
I will N/A any answers which l do not consider to have strong consensus positions (e.g. COVID origin).
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Consensus Update:
Only the consensus among relevant academic experts is considered for resolving the market.
This standard will be used to determine whether Elon Musk's statements contradict the established consensus positions.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Seriousness in Ambiguous Cases
In instances where Elon Musk’s statements are ambiguous, they will be interpreted as serious if the overall tone and context lead most observers to take them at face value.
If uncertainty exists regarding whether a remark is a joke or a genuine statement, the benefit of the doubt will be given by treating it as a serious remark.
1,000Not quite there yet but shockingly close
https://xcancel.com/elonmusk?cursor=DAABCgABGl8QmxX__9EKAAIaXmqGxxthqwgAAwAAAAIAAA
@TheAllMemeingEye it has to appear serious in the sense that most people are taking it seriously. In cases where it's ambiguous, I will err on the side of him being serious, since I think people in his reference class often semi-joke when they are actually serious.
@TheAllMemeingEye Try graduating when you disagree. You will suddenly find things are much more difficult for you than for your peers. How can you find the actual truth when there are strong incentives to believe a certain way?
@IsaacLinn for the purposes of this market, the only consensus that matters is relevant academic experts. I don't find this skepticism reasonable, but regardless, this will be my standard for the resolution.
@IsaacLinn there's nothing stopping someone from having an unpopular but true belief, keeping it largely to themselves at first, graduating, then doing a scientifically rigorous academic study on the controversial topic, perhaps with funding officially justified by attempting to disprove the unpopular belief, but being unable to disprove it because it is true, thus having defacto proved it to be true via Karl Popper's falsification theory, and gradually winning over the scientific community because the study was so good.
Personally, I don't think this is likely for any of the listed things because they are overwhelmingly unlikely to be actually true, but you can try.