This market predicts whether Cuba’s current one-party communist regime ceases to govern the country before the end of 2026.

For the purposes of this market, “regime collapse” refers to a loss of effective political control by the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), not merely protests, economic deterioration, or leadership reshuffles within the same power structure.

✅ Resolves YES if any of the following occur before December 31, 2026:

• The PCC formally loses its constitutional monopoly on power

• A non-PCC government (interim or permanent) assumes control of the Cuban state

• Miguel Díaz-Canel resigns, flees, or is removed and is not replaced by another PCC hardliner

• Binding, multiparty national elections are announced with a credible and public timeline

• The Cuban Armed Forces (FAR) or security apparatus openly break with the PCC and enable a transfer of power

❌ Resolves NO if:

• Large protests or unrest occur but the PCC retains power

• Leadership changes remain internal to the PCC or military elite

• Economic collapse, shortages, blackouts, or migration waves intensify without political transition

• Temporary emergency rule or repression restores regime control

📰 Resolution criteria

This market will be resolved based on clear reporting from major international news organizations (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, El País), official Cuban government statements, and/or recognition by major foreign governments or international bodies.

Ambiguous or disputed outcomes will be resolved conservatively.

📚 Background (for context)

Cuba has been governed by a one-party communist system since 1959. Real political and economic power today is concentrated in the Communist Party, the Cuban Armed Forces (FAR), and military-run conglomerates such as GAESA, which controls large segments of tourism, retail, ports, and hard-currency flows.

In recent years, Cuba has faced:

• Chronic fuel and electricity shortages

• Sharp declines in oil imports and foreign currency reserves

• Record-high emigration

• Periodic mass protests (notably July 2021)

• Increasing reliance on repression and emergency measures

This market does not predict economic hardship or unrest per se, but whether those pressures result in a true political rupture of the current regime.