Based on the trajectory of my life as of today I see it as a distinct possibility that I am driven insane by one or a combination of a number of factors:
long term existential concerns
Contemplation of optimization
Perceiving excess human suffering and or human fates
Etc.
This leads naturally to the question of if I will be insane by EOY 2025 as well as what the nature and consequences of such insanity should be in the event that it occurs.
My perceived stress will stand in as a proxy for my sanity. The questionnaire below will act as a measure of my perceived stress.
Should my score be at or above 0.70 PSQ during the months of November or December at some point along with the personal assessment that my sanity is slipping this market will resolve to Yes.
For reference my current score for stress sits at 0.52 PSQ.
Should there be enough interest in this market I may repeat the questionnaire before November and December as a kind of progress update.
Best of luck and may god have mercy on your soul.😁
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@realDonaldTrump I felt it appropriate given that at a single point during the past three months I actually experienced a stress induced hallucination (which can not be discounted for the purpose of this market but can be discounted for my personal health given the confluence of external factors needed to induce it along with its lack of lasting impact) but as of right now I feel fine. And I scored an 0.7166 on the PSQ recently. That being said I feel completely sane at the moment and my mental state seems to have stabilized also I have the time to work on my personal projects and multiple safety nets have opened up for me so on balance I feel that this resolution is reasonable. More insane than the market expected, less insane than I expected and less than 50% insane overall.
That being said addressing your previous comment I’m doing alright, still substantial risk exposure but my agency wrt the risk is shrinking so the impact on my mental state is too. In summary let’s see what happens.
Being stressed out, even to the point of panic attacks, is quite different from being insane. I would recommend either changing the title to match the criteria (e.g. "Will I be suffering from extreme stress by EOY?") or changing the criteria to match the title (e.g. "resolves yes if I am involuntarily confined to a psychiatric hospital and/or am diagnosed by a qualified medical professional with a severe delusional mental illness such as paranoid schizophrenia"). Stay safe fam 🙏
@TheAllMemeingEye 💀 worst case scenario I expect the type of madness you’d see a character in a lovecraft novel and based on the period in which lovecraft wrote where he was likely inspired by shellshock so all things considered prolonged intense stress may actually be a good predictive proxy. That being said I don’t intend to put more thought than necessary into this and I’ll probably be fine though the future obviously remains unknown.
(p.s. I am also of the belief that you can be simultaneously completely lucid, in touch with reality and void of any symptoms of a defined pathology while maintaining a rational set of internal values and objectives that pushes the structure of the mind to the limits.)