Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."
I will also use common sense to avoid vandalism etc and to resolve the question of whether it still exists but the present/past tense is the main criteria by which I will judge the question in order to avoid controversy.
1,000People are also trading
Will god "still exist"? Will he probably still be recognized as existing by your preferred corpus regardless of any direct evidence? It is more a question about the future state of the corpus than about observable reality.
@DylanSlagh I raised the issue that whether or not a state exist according to wikipedia tel you almost nothing about whether or not it exists in any objective sense. An independent state of palestine is currently recognized as existing mostly as a strange way of recognizing its right to exist. At the same time, many organizations that actually control territories, tax populations, and monopolize violence are not recognized as states for various reasons.
This is fine to have such market if wikipedia's internal politics is what interests you, but if you are curious about predicting the actual situation, i you may want some more concrete criteria - who collect taxes who manage the police, do they get a vote in the UN...
@DylanSlagh So yes, I understand this market as secondarily a matter of wikipedia politics. When I created this market that was much more important to me. Now I’d be just as likely to ask the opinion of a LLM. For the purposes of this market though, I’ll continue to rely on wikipedia
@DylanSlagh legit, though common sense also vary. From my (biased) perspective this state currently mostly does not exist, so "still exist" is confusing