His prior was 80%, my prior as 87%, and our mutual friend's prior was 65%.

Resolves based on whether he is employed by an academic institution on January, 1st 2029.

Feb 12, 10:01am: My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 5th year, will be in academia in 2029. → My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029.