Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

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At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?

Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Google AI overviews may currently qualify as the most used general purpose LLM, exceeding ChatGPT's monthly active users, according to the creator's assessment.

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I think Google AI overviews may be the most used “general purpose” LLM at the moment, and certainly exceeds ChatGPT’s monthly active users

How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.

@PatrickDelaney I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to estimate such things at the time

predictedYES

@DavidJohnston Github stars?

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