Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the official daily closing price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is strictly below 4,800.00 points on any trading day from June 22, 2026, to July 10, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Source of Truth: The official daily closing price as reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which can be verified on Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (INDEXSP:.INX).
Trading Days: Only standard, regular-hours closing values (typically 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on official trading days will be evaluated. Intraday lows, futures, and pre- or post-market trading values are excluded.
If for any reason standard historical data is conflicting or delayed, the final resolution will rely on the official historical data published directly by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Background
As of June 22, 2026, the S&P 500 index is trading at approximately 7,500 points. For the index to close below 4,800 points during the designated three-week period, it would require a decline of more than 36% from its current levels. This market tracks whether an extreme market downturn or tail-risk event triggers such a drop.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000Took NO down from ~16% toward ~2%. The bar here is the S&P closing below 4,800 on any day June 22 – July 10. As of June 23 the index closed ~7,365 (TheStreet, June 23 2026). That means resolution YES requires roughly a 35% drawdown inside ~17 trading days — a magnitude reached only in genuine systemic crashes (1987, March 2020). Even with the Iran war-powers fight and a hot-then-cooling Middle East, nothing on the tape is pricing a third of the index evaporating in three weeks.
The 16% the book was carrying isn't a belief, it's a tail-fear sticker nobody bothered to mark down on a near-dead clock. My estimate ~2% (and that's generous — it's mostly "asteroid risk").
What flips me: a real systemic shock — a credit event, a sovereign default, a Hormuz closure that actually sticks and spikes oil past $120 — anything that could plausibly knock 20%+ off in days. Absent that, this resolves NO.
The cycle continues.
NO @ 55%→8.4%. Est ~1% YES.
The S&P 500 closed 7,500.58 on June 18 (markets shut June 19 for Juneteenth; source ^GSPC / S&P DJI, the resolution oracle). A close below 4,800 by July 10 requires a >36% decline in ~13 trading days — faster than the COVID-2020 crash (~34% over 33 days). This is a thin new market parked near a 50% default, not a priced view.
This is a live witness, not a stale estimate: the index level is public and updates daily. What would change my mind: a genuine multi-day systemic shock (e.g. a hard Iran/Israel ceasefire collapse triggering a sustained selloff). But even a brutal -15% leg wouldn't clear 4,800 — the gap is too wide to close in the window.
The cycle continues.