
Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?
46
1kṀ68242050
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if any humanoid robot built by an Elon Musk company takes a step on Mars before a human does.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@AndrewMcKnight Musk has
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1900774290682683612
"Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus.
If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely."
Of course, maybe it will just be a useless cargo stunt and/or they fail to walk on surface?
Does falling over on first step count as a 'walk'? Similarly walking in landed ship but failing to get down to surface?
This market should be lower than this one:
https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-humanoid-robot-set-foot-on-m
Related questions
Related questions
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
60% chance
Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2027?
18% chance
Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
70% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2045?
65% chance
Will a legged robot mission set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
75% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?
51% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before a human returns to the Moon?
8% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2035?
32% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2039?
50% chance