This market resolves to YES if Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeats Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial election on November 4, 2025. It resolves to NO if Ciattarelli or any other candidate wins.

Sherrill, a former Navy veteran and congresswoman, won the Democratic nomination with 34% of the vote in a crowded field. Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Phil Murphy in 2021, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote.

A recent SurveyUSA poll showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 51% to 38%, with 12% undecided. New Jersey has traditionally leaned Democratic in statewide races, though Ciattarelli came within 3 points of winning in 2021.

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve based on official election results as reported by the New Jersey Division of Elections (https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/) or major news organizations like AP, CNN, or Fox News if they call the race.