Resolves NO if at any point before Jan 21st, 2029 independence of the Federal Reserve has been reduced. I'm open to refining resolution criteria until Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st 2025.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792
Elon Musk has endorsed US Senator Mike Lee's call to end the Federal Reserve and give the president direct control over monetary policy.
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Major red line: any formal action by the US government that intervenes in Fed decision-making or major Fed staffing in an unprecedented way.
Example: firing the Fed Chair (e.g., Jerome Powell) before their term ends.
Update 2025-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional trigger for NO
Application of Supreme Court ruling to Fed staffing: If the Wilcox ruling is found to apply to Federal Reserve staffing decisions (for example, using it to fire the Fed Chair before their term ends), this market will resolve NO.
1,000People are also trading
I'm open to input on how to further clarify this market, I think this is a broad market that could end up being resolved on difficult subjective edge cases, and so I'd like to tighten up the resolution criteria.
@DanW I'm personally a fan of giving resolution criteria to multiple frontier LLMs and asking them for their proposed resolution. If not consensus, show them each other's responses
@benjaminIkuta Unfortunately the initial resolution criteria was pretty vague & subjective because there are a lot of potential vectors for killing fed independence.
A major red line for me: any formal action from the US gov that intervenes in Fed decision making or major Fed staffing in an unprecedented way. Firing Powell before his term is up would resolve NO.
@DanW Yes, firing him would obviously be a clear cut case. If a NO resolution would require anywhere near that degree of happening, I would confidently bet this market even higher.
If this was actually going to happen (abolishing the Fed, and/or putting monetary policy under direct control of POTUS) I'd expect a rather dramatic reaction from the stock market. However the resolution criteria say it would resolve "yes" under more modest changes than I imagined reading the question text.
Wilcox gives the Court’s Republican majority a vehicle to overrule Humphrey’s Executor in its entirety — potentially ending independence for all federal agencies, including the Fed.
https://www.vox.com/scotus/408848/supreme-court-donald-trump-unitary-executive-wilcox
@Siebe If this ruling is found to be applicable to Fed Reserve staffing, or is used as such (ex: to fire Powell before his term ends) then this market will resolve NO.