Will effective personality simulation be available by 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ10492030
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We'll define personality simulation as effective enough if an employee can ask a manager's simulation a question and generally rely on the answer. E.g. are companies using it in management, are consultants and lawyers using it for preliminary interactions, do companies use personality simulation for R&D before using focus groups with real people
More here: https://every.to/chain-of-thought/llms-can-simulate-personality-that-s-a-big-deal
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Toby96 I think it would be pretty easy to tell the simulation to not make very consequential decisions
Related questions
Related questions
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
35% chance
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
51% chance
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?
32% chance
Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?
61% chance
Will an autonomous personal AI agent, capable of managing daily affairs, be available by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
37% chance
Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
43% chance
By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
36% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
59% chance