4% chance. Original title: Did the IDF just blow up a hospital on Gaza? Original description: If the answer is unclear, I will resolve it to my best guess of the median informed observers' subjective probability based on all reliable sources. Referring to the following attack: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diplomats-renew-calls-gaza-aid-iran-warns-israel-2023-10-16/ Edit (Oct 17, 5:32 PM): A more extensive description of the resolution criteria is forthcoming now that this market is getting more activity; the actual outcome will of course stay the same, and I will be resolving the market in the spirit of the question. Oct 18, 12PM: Some notes on specific questions in the comment section: This is essentially a market about who launched the attack. If Israel intercepted a missile over the hospital and it landed tragically, that won't count as Israel blowing up the hospital for the purposes of this market. "Reliable sources" includes both reliable primary and secondary sources. I will be interpreting all of the evidence I can to make a decision, not just taking the word of particular media outlets. I will also be evaluating (with a grain of salt) any released evidence or assessments from the IDF, USA, and Gaza, taking into account that these are biased parties and they may be lying or otherwise not giving us the full story. Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with. If I personally have some galaxy brain interpretation of the evidence that I don't think Average Joe Rationalist or disinterested manifold users would endorse, and that interpretation hasn't appeared anywhere in the media and is just my invention, I'll leave that at the door and stick to the apparent facts of the case. I am punting final judgement for now, but I will probably not be resolving this question NO merely because it turns out that the attack hit the hospital's parking lot instead of the hospital itself. That seems to me like the sort of nitpicky resolution judgement that hurts prediction markets' ability to inform others, given the part of the description where I elaborate that I'm referring to the specific attack reported in the media at the time, and given the fact that I and the betters and the people who saw this market on Twitter read the market probablity as asking who was responsible for the reported attack.