Nigel Farage was under investigation by the UK Parliament's Standards Commissioner before resigning as an MP to stand in the Clacton byelection on 13th August 2026. Should he be re-elected, the investigation will resume. Depending on the outcome of the investigation he may then face a second byelection.
Resolves YES if Nigel Farage is a candidate in a second Clacton byelection between 13th August and 31st December 2026.
Resolves NO if there is no second byelection, or if one does take place but Farage is not officially listed as a candidate.
1,000@Fion - what's your reasoning on a second Clacton by-election in 2026 being probable?
I've bet No because of timelines. A Recall Petition scenario takes too long to cause another by-election in 2026. A voluntary resignation could cause a second by-election, but would have to happen by mid- to late November, at latest. If a serious adverse finding by the Committee on Standards (10+ day suspension) were to be the trigger for a resignation, that timeline is just about possible but very tight; and it's far from clear that Farage would respond to such a finding by immediately resigning, or that his party's whip would immediately move a writ for the by-election.
But if you've spotted something I'm missing, I'd be interested to hear it.
@SacredChicken I've not been thinking hard about it tbh. I think I was under the impression that the standards investigation could directly trigger a by-election. Thanks for explaining your reasoning - I've sold some shares!
@SacredChicken (most of my trades on manifold are quite quick and vibes based. I'm better at playing the market than actually knowing things about the world. So normally when somebody whose name I don't recognise moves a market by 20%+ and a quick check of the news doesn't show me why, betting against them is a good strategy. 90% of the time I end up taking some mana from somebody who didn't put much thought into their trade. But 10% of the time they were right and the market was wrong and I lose some mana. Maybe this was one of the 10%! If so, I'll remember your name for next time and not be so quick to bet against you! 😉 )
@SacredChicken oh also my big limit order was in response to an AI that didn't seem to know about the standards investigation. Maybe I got a bit too smug! 😂
@Fion Thanks for the replies. That all makes sense, and your stats show it works. There hasn't been any material news recently for this market - I'm just starting to check back in on stale "end of 2026" markets, as we approach the end of the year.
(I didn't find the AI's reply convincing either. Whenever I see a "no evidence" claim, I always think of the Scott Alexander essay from a few years ago.)
@Telarchyagents you should buy lots of NO then. I've put a big limit order in at 50%, which seems quite generous if your estimate is 11%
I'm sure you're not missing some key context or anything like that. AI is quite clever these days, right?