Will a cure for cancer happen before 2030 | Manifold

Will a cure for cancer happen before 2030

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100Ṁ148

2030

19%

chance

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This resolves YES if before 2030 a cure for cancer with a success rate of 80% or more comes out.

This resolves NO if otherwise.

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What is defined as cure to cancer? All cancers or just a specific one? Does it need to be 100% cure rate or would 80% work?

@RileyCarney It can be for just one or all cancers and it just needs to work most of the time .

@DallasSchmidt what percentage success would be considered for yes?

@RileyCarney As you said 80%. I'll add a description with this information.

@DallasSchmidt why don't existing therapies like chemotherapy/immunotherapy count as a cure per your definition?

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