Will the UK experience major riots in 2025, on a similar scale to those experienced in 2024?
27
1kṀ2888
Dec 31
35%
chance

Background

The UK experienced significant riots in 2024, sparked by anti-immigration sentiments. These riots involved violent clashes between far-right groups, counter-protesters, and police forces.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if at least one of the following occurs in the UK during 2025:

  • Multiple days of violent protests involving 1000+ participants

  • Property damage exceeding £1 million in a single riot event

  • Deployment of riot police in multiple cities simultaneously

  • Declaration of a state of emergency due to civil unrest

  • Multiple injuries to police officers or civilians during riot events

The market will resolve NO if none of these criteria are met during 2025.

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Resolution questions:

What is a “riot event” in points 2 and 4; what is a “violent” protest in point 1; is a state of emergency only invocations of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, or are there lesser or localised declarations that would count in a similar way?

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