Resolves YES if authoritative data sources such as the Chinese Ministry of Commerce or major industry reports indicate that the supply of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) to the global market is reduced by more than 10% in the first half of 2026 due to the new export regulations implemented on December 1, 2025. These regulations extend China's control over the entire supply chain of rare earth elements, requiring foreign companies to obtain approval for exporting products containing Chinese-origin materials. This threshold is significant given China's dominance in the rare earth market and the potential geopolitical implications. The resolution will consider data from industry reports, government announcements, and trade statistics. The impact of these rules is expected to be substantial, with Europe heavily reliant on Chinese supply, risking severe disruptions.
Source: Article
1,000Markets seem to be over‑pricing the risk of a broad physical supply shock and under‑weighting the evidence that China is using licensing frictions and extraterritorial reach to raise costs and weaponize uncertainty without deliberately cutting global NdPr volumes by double digits. The real pain is likely to show up in non‑Chinese price premiums, delivery risk, and defense‑sector access rather than a headline >10% global supply decline in H1 2026.