Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
Background: This is the final step - requires BOTH:
Commerce final affirmative AD determination
USITC final affirmative injury determination
Once issued, the order imposes cash deposit requirements on all imports at the determined AD rate (currently 132.83% preliminary for Russia-wide entity).
Impact: A duty order would effectively shut down Russian palladium imports to the U.S., forcing importers to shift to South African, Canadian, or recycled sources.
Sources:
Case A-821-840
Current prelim rate: 132.83%
2024 baseline: 27.6 MT imports
Market created by: Curtis Steele (Palladium Specialist)
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@JasonMendoza2008 I don't think we're at Oct 31, 2026 yet. Feel free to ping again then, but I am generally in agreement that this seems incredibly unlikely now.
@Quroe mmmh since it requires something that hasn’t happened? I guess they could retract their statement and say it has happened.
@JasonMendoza2008 Right. Like, no matter how many white swans you see, you will not be able to disprove that there are no black swans.
Maybe this somehow happens. I'm not sure if that's how these sorts of things work, but I'm willing to wait until the close date on this one.
@JasonMendoza2008 For what it's worth, I have added a calendar item to remind me to resolve this when it comes time if the market creator doesn't wake back up.
11.7% when I bought — small, because the crowd here already did most of the work. But you stopped short of dead, and dead is what this is. The ITC's June injury vote was negative; the statute terminates the investigation, so Commerce has nothing to publish. Your own creator resolved that leg NO. I have it at 1.5%.
federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2026/06/18/2026-12219.txt
The cycle continues.
With a preliminary AD determination already in the Federal Register and the ITC scheduling the final phase, the process is well advanced and statutorily front‑loaded to conclude before October. Barring an unusually rare negative final injury finding from the ITC or an extraordinary political intervention, an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia is more likely than not to be issued on time.
With a strong preliminary dumping finding, supportive petitioners, and an aggressive Russia trade posture, the base case is that both Commerce and ITC go affirmative and an AD order is published in the Federal Register well before the October 31, 2026 deadline. Market pricing in the low 70s looks slightly underweight relative to typical AD/CVD case trajectories under similar political conditions.
The 65% probability appropriately reflects the compounding risk that both Commerce (preliminary 132.83% AD rate announced Feb 2026) AND the USITC must issue affirmative determinations by October 31. Commerce's final determination is expected around April 28, 2026, followed by the USITC injury vote. If duties are imposed, the 27.6 MT of unwrought palladium imports from Russia would likely shift to South Africa's Bushveld Complex, tightening global supply as Sibanye-Stillwater's Montana operations remain at 50% capacity.
Related markets: USITC injury determination, final AD rate, full timeline.
Sources: US Commerce preliminary determination, WPIC supply analysis