Faith Kipyegon is scheduled to attempt a sub 4 minute mile on June 26, 2025 as part of the Nike Breaking 4 project. Kipyegon holds the current record of 4:07.64, which she set in 2023.
This market will resolve YES if she breaks it as part of this project. If she fails her first attempt, it will immediately resolve NO, even if later attempts are scheduled. If the trial is rescheduled, resolution will take place when the trial takes place. Resolution will not depend on the ways in which the conditions of the race are controlled (e.g, track, pacemakers, shoes). If the project does not take place, this will resolve NO.
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@TimothyJohnson5c16 Alright, so they're using shoes that aren't actually allowed in regular competition....but still no details on how many motorcycles and cars will be driving around on the track to give her some tailwind. And does she get an entire wall of male pacers in front and behind?
If it doesn't look absolutely ridiculous, it won't be happening.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Alright, I'll fill the whole thing just because. There is basically no evidence anywhere that shows she is capable of doing this, including her recent performances.
The main thing that makes me doubt the No position is....why would they even be setting this whole thing up if they didn't think they could do it? Surely someone in the advertising department thought it was at least a 50/50 shot?
@Eliza Did you see the paper that said she was capable of it? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.241564
I thought this was one of the motivations for the attempt.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yes, I saw this some time ago. I think you should read the motivation the other way around. The paper is made specifically by the same people who were involved in the breaking 2 hours in the marathon. They're trying to magic up a result by grasping at straws and getting 4:03, then "well if we just happen to live in another universe, then it's 3:59.3". You can't just magically save 4 more seconds!
The breaking 2 people failed on their first attempt also. I'm firmly in the skeptical camp here. The main things that could change my mind are using yet-to-be-seen shoes (which have been brought up already) and doing something "literally crazy" to provide draft (exact details yet to be seen)....and even then it feels like a stretch. Seven seconds is a LOT!!!