Will I get an A- or higher in Psych 1 at Stanford?
5
1kṀ445
Mar 23
66%
chance

The class has a complicated but formulaic grading scheme. At least 70% of my grade is already determined, although some of it required me to estimate. However, I have one final exam on Monday, which I'm trying to motivate myself to study for. It has two components:

  • a written essay (10% of my grade, they gave us a formula but it requires memorizing studies; sort of a wildcard)

  • a multiple choice / short answer portion (similar to the two prior exams where I got 50 and 52, so if I don't study much I'll probably get a similar-ish score... The lowest exam is dropped, so this counts as 20% of my grade if I get at least 50/60 or 10% of my grade otherwise)

In order to get an A-, I need at least 89.5% overall. I made some estimates which show a grade of approximately 90%, right around the line. Plus there's always the chance I misunderstood something about how grades are computed. So I thought it'd be fun to forecast...

Link to grade calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EFgiQ8PZ0kqXgrgJNRXbCpVd_lsIeA0n5tZUUvjIg9Q/edit?gid=0#gid=0

See also:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules