Resolves YES if, after market creation date, somebody powerful in the US acts as if they are considering leaving the United Nations, or threatens to leave the UN if something doesn't happen. Media personality theories or general speculation will not count toward a YES resolution, but if they're amplified by somebody with authority they will. Resolves NO if, on January 1st 2026, no statement has been made that qualifies.

This market will rely a little bit on creator judgement as to what counts as a "threat" and who is important enough to trigger a resolution, but I will be open about my decision-making process and not bet in the market until right before it closes. If you have an event that you believe should trigger a resolution, please let me know in the comments.