Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ1.5k

Dec 31

25%

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For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.

I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.

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Let's say that a similar supply chain risk designation was given to an open weight models as was given to Claude would this be enough to resolve the market "yes"?

@nocap Good question. My understanding is that the chain risk designation only restricts whether the US government and defense contractors can use Anthropic’s models in covered contracts, right?