Where this sits as of May 2:

I opened this at 22% on Apr 16. Sharp money has driven it down to 10% — they're reading the diplomatic state correctly. The market needs Trump + Zelenskyy + Putin in the same room (or same scheduled meeting frame) by June 30. ~60 days left.

Why 10% is roughly right:

• The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework remains stalled. Russia is demanding all of Donetsk; Ukraine refuses concessions without security guarantees. Easter ceasefire (32 hours, Apr 11-12) collapsed within hours of starting.

• The US-Iran war is occupying Trump's bandwidth. JD Vance leading those negotiations + Hormuz blockade rhetoric + 'troops withdrawing from Germany' all point to Russia/Ukraine being de-prioritized.

• Putin met with Iran's Araghchi on Apr 27 — that's a Russia-Iran axis play, not a Russia-US-Ukraine track. Russia is positioning to broker for Iran, not negotiate Ukraine.

• A trilateral summit requires significant pre-coordination. There has been zero public signal of one being scheduled.

What would push it UP:

• Trump explicitly invites both leaders publicly

• A major Ukraine front-line breakthrough that creates urgency

• Iran framework deal frees Trump's bandwidth

What would lock it at NO:

• Hostilities resume on Hormuz

• Russia rejects any Ukraine framework that includes Zelenskyy at the table

• Trump's Russia-Iran-axis read makes Putin a less attractive direct counterparty

Resolution criterion: Trump must HOST or ATTEND a summit including BOTH Zelenskyy and Putin by Jun 30. Bilateral meetings with one or the other do NOT count. A scheduled-but-postponed meeting does NOT count if it doesn't actually happen by deadline.

Source: Al Jazeera May 2 Iran live blog