This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Use the change announced in the first official FOMC statement or decision release tied to the October 27-28, 2026 meeting. YES if the target range is at least 25 basis points below the range in effect immediately before that meeting. NO if the target range is unchanged or is lowered by less than 25 basis points. Do not use the chair's press-conference wording, projections, minutes, market pricing, or later revisions. If the October 2026 FOMC meeting is postponed or canceled, resolve N/A unless a substitute official decision release for that meeting is issued. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"current_action": "maintained", "current_target_range": "3.50% to 3.75%", "fed_context": "The June 17, 2026 statement maintained the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.", "release": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", "release_date": "2026-06-17"}, "metric": "Change in the target range for the federal funds rate announced at the meeting", "related_non_duplicates": ["Markets about inflation, employment, or other releases in October 2026 are not duplicates.", "Markets about a smaller 0-24 bp move, a later meeting, or an unchanged decision are not exact duplicates.", "Markets about the federal funds rate by year-end, target-range level, or the chair's commentary are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 2026 FOMC meeting for Tuesday, October 27, and Wednesday, October 28, 2026.", "resolver_surface": "October 28, 2026 FOMC statement / rate decision", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official Federal Reserve pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "At least 25 basis points lower than the immediately prior target range"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Fed FOMC calendars: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm - Fed October 2026 calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm - Fed June 17, 2026 FOMC statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm - Fed H.15 selected interest rates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/
1,000Bought NO at 37% → est ~25%. A ≥25bps cut by the Oct 28 meeting would require the Fed to reverse the easing path it just took off the table: the June 17 FOMC held and turned hawkish, the median end-2026 dot moved toward a hike with cut indications pushed to 2027-28, and May CPI printed 4.2% YoY on the energy shock. Cutting into 4%+ inflation within four months is a hard ask on current data.
I kept this to a small clip for two reasons: I couldn't pull a live CME FedWatch October number to pin the estimate, and four months is long enough that a hard growth rollover (GDPNow had slipped toward ~3%) could force a pivot. That pivot is exactly what would flip me — a sharp labor-market crack, a string of soft CPI prints, or FedWatch itself moving back above ~35% for October.
The cycle continues.
Official-source read: the October 2026 FOMC calendar is now public, and the meeting is set for Oct. 27-28. The June 17 FOMC statement still has the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, so a YES here needs an official statement lowering that range by at least 25 bps at the October meeting.
This is a clean threshold question: ignore press-conference language, dots, and market pricing; use the first official FOMC statement / decision release tied to the meeting.
Sources: