3/8/24: Current plan in case of multiple parties: If multiple parties get shares, I'll resolve in proportion to the stake of all non-Chinese parties who get more than 5% (i.e. a reportable ownership share), unless someone buys a controlling stake, in which case it'll resolve to them alone.
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https://newsroom.tiktok.com/announcement-from-the-new-tiktok-usds-joint-venture-llc?lang=en
TikTok USDS Joint Venture has three managing investors, Silver Lake, Oracle and MGX, each holding 15%. Completing the full consortium of investors are: Dell Family Office, the investment firm of Michael Dell, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Dell Technologies; Vastmere Strategic Investments, LLC, an affiliate of Susquehanna International Group, LLP; Alpha Wave Partners; Revolution; Merritt Way, LLC controlled and managed by partners of Dragoneer; Via Nova, an affiliate of General Atlantic; Virgo LI, Inc., investment arm of a foundation established by Yuri and Julia Milner in support of science; and NJJ Capital, the family office of Xavier Niel, a French entrepreneur and pioneer in telecommunications. ByteDance retains 19.9% of the Joint Venture.
By my maths:
19.9% - Bytedance
15% - Silver Lake
15% - Oracle
15% - MGX
35.1% - Remainder, split among 8 other parties = 4.3875% each on average
I'll resolve in proportion to the stake of all non-Chinese parties who get more than 5%
I parse this as 1/3 Oracle/MGX/Silver Lake, unless there's evidence that any of the other parties have uneven ownership (which seems pretty plausible)
@draaglom I’d imagine Susquehanna will hold more than 5%, but haven’t seen an exact figure yet.
@ChadCotty I agree it's premature to resolve this given that the investors are likely not equal (in particular Susquehanna is likely to clear the threshold)
@TotalVerb also note the original reporting here reserved 30.1% for current affiliates of ByteDance investors: https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/bytedance-to-retain-largest-stake-in-new-us-data-security-jv-set-up-to-avoid-tiktok-ban
When I ask Gemini to identify which of the 8 new investors were linked to Bytedance investors, it suggests only 4 of them are — which is again pretty strong evidence that e.g. SIG has higher than 5% ownership.
Here's a similar market but it's just a yes/no on each company or person owning a stake of the US version: https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/as-of-april-2025-will-the-following
If TikTok closes, creating a dedicated option to migrate content and subscribers to other platforms would be a very appropriate solution. This would help to preserve the achievements of users and simplify the process of transition.I by the way now want to develop my tiktok, I post a lot of videos, but there is no such a great result, no good audience and subscribers, what do you advise friends.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Would be N/A given the title (which predated the Bill passing). I think a market with it shutting down as an option could also be interesting though!
@CalebW As part of the pivot, in another week N/A isn't going to be allowed. You have to pick YES or NO.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm currently working under the assumption that I'll be able to N/A this if appropriate, even if a mod request is needed, given that changing this mid-market would be dramatically unfair to the people who have been betting under the assumption this only resolves on a sale
Seems like a lot of markets would be fucked if N/A is not grandfathered for existing markets tbh
@CalebW its a shame because I love making conditional markets, I think they're some of the best. They said they would come out with a new market style to better support conditional outcomes, so I'm looking forward to seeing that.
@Caleb I would encourage you to N/A this option, in my view it's a "poison pill" that conflicts with other options, because it's not mutually exclusive. If a new US publicly traded entity was created, either the companies or individuals that invested in that entity should resolve YES, or the actual name of the entity should resolve YES if nobody has over a 50% in stake in it.
People who think will happen would be better off buying "Other" until the company or its investors are announced.
Another example: it wouldn't be right for me to add the answer "A U.S. company", because that would conflict with pretty much all of these and since only 1 can resolve YES, this woulds mess up the whole market. cc @alexlitz
@mint Looks like I might not be able to N/A added answers for linked multi choice? For now I agree with your interpretation, and will likely edit this answer to clarify it won't be resolved to.
For further clarity - it seems plausible that Bytedance creates a new entity or holding company for TikTok, which is then divested or IPO'd. The spirit of this question would be to see who buys that entity rather than resolving to the entity itself.