MANIFOLD
How many Americans will be killed in post-election civil unrest before January 21st, 2025?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ826
resolved Jan 21
100%99.0%
0
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
5-10
0.1%
10-50
0.1%
50-100
0.1%
100-1000
0.1%
1000-10,000
0.1%
10,000+

This question specifically refers to deaths that are specifically related to political civil unrest (e.g. January 6th capital riot, protests, politically motivated homicides or assassinations etc.). The market will resolve on Jan 21 unless the death toll of a mass casualty event is still being tabulated. If you have evidence of examples of eligible deaths please leave them in the comments - I will do my best to keep track.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
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There seems not to be direct evidence of deaths due to civil unrest due to the election, so I have resolved this to 0. Thanks for participating!

To reduce negative incentives if it is discovered that a Manifold member participating in this market is responsible for killing enough Americans for political reasons to affect the results their kill count will be subtracted from the total.

bought Ṁ2 YES

@BungalowBernard 🤣🤣🤣

@hidetzugu I encourage any other market participants with evidence of political homicide by other members to speak up to maintain the integrity of the market

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