Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the conflict between Israel and Iran (and possibly involving other actors such as the USA) is generally recognized as a war lasting six months or longer.
Resolves "NO" if, on December 31, 2025, the parties have come to an agreement, one of the parties has surrendered, or an ongoing standoff or truce has been reached in which neither party has taken military action for at least 30 days.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will be resolved based on the state of the conflict at the closing time (December 31, 2025), not when a condition is met prior to this date.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน148 | |
| 2 | แน43 | |
| 3 | แน19 | |
| 4 | แน16 |
the parties have come to an agreement
This happened
Both Israel and Iran took hours to acknowledge they had accepted the ceasefire and accused each other of violating it, underscoring the fragility of the truce between the two bitter foes and the challenge of achieving lasting peace between them.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/