Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the conflict between Israel and Iran (and possibly involving other actors such as the USA) is generally recognized as a war lasting six months or longer.

Resolves "NO" if, on December 31, 2025, the parties have come to an agreement, one of the parties has surrendered, or an ongoing standoff or truce has been reached in which neither party has taken military action for at least 30 days.

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will be resolved based on the state of the conflict at the closing time (December 31, 2025), not when a condition is met prior to this date.