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@BowieHill creator seems inactive. @mods Resolve please

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season
3 cat 5s but none of them hit USA

Does this include only the 50 states, or other US territories as well?

To resolve yes, the hurricane must be a category 5 when it makes landfall correct?

Since 1929 have only been four cat 5 hurricanes to strike the US. The most recent two were in 1992 and 2018. Current odds at 60% seem too high.

@StephenStroup I get ~ 6% climatologically for a whole year (1991-2023 baseline); 3% for the remaining part of this year. Including the remaining part of 2024 and 2025 and taking them to be independent, I get a prior of 8%:

1 - (.97 * .94) ~= 0.08

Even if you fudge the numbers and double the probabilities, you get 17%:

1 - (0.94 * 0.88) ~= 0.17