Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?
24
11kṀ10k2032
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Here "Bitcoin" refers to the main BTC chain, or whatever fork descending from that chain is accruing the most daily fees at the time of the attack.
To be resolved YES when at least 3 credible news websites report that a 51% attack has taken place.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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There are several possibilities why this actually could happen (merge of several large mining pools, SHA-256 weakness found, unexpected fast development of quantum Computers...). Given the timeframe of 7 years there is a non zero chance it may happen (most of the events are pretty unlikely though). Consider my M50 play money.
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