Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
18
1kṀ548Nov 26
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of aesop.
Resolves YES if aesop successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
You will use aesop without any arguments or additional configuration (besides what is given in mathlib)?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
53% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
40% chance
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
18% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
75% chance
Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
19% chance
What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
72% chance
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
16% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
1% chance