Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Manifold removes ambiguous date warning by 2027-01-01?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ169
Dec 31
85%
chance

When drafting this very market, I got the following suggestion:

On 2027-01-01 I will go to Manifold's market creation page to make a very similar market to this one, referencing the date 2028-01-01 instead of 2027-01-01.

This market resolves NO if, when I do this, a message like the one above shows up. Otherwise, if no warning shows up (or only a warning about something else), this resolves YES.

Manifold
Manifold Business Future
Manifold Features
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the world mostly converge on a single date format before 31/29/30?
15% chance
Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26)
36% chance
Will numbers be unambiguous before 2045?
11% chance
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
29% chance
Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?
32% chance
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
21% chance
How many Manifold markets will close on January 1st, 2030?
Manifold has another database rollback by EOY 2029?
36% chance
Do Manifold users like "67"? (resolves end of 2026)
33% chance
Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027
38% chance
Sort by:

How would you resolve it if this was tested today? We still have a warning for "by" + date (which I don't think we strictly need in this case) but the YYYY-MM-DD format no longer triggers an ambiguous date warning.

Wait, so it resolves NO if they do make that change but resolves YES if they don't make the change?

@BlackCrusade It resolves YES if a change is made. It resolves NO if no change is made (i.e. the message still shows up).

(Probably should have phrased the title and resolution criteria in a more positive way, but I think they both say the same thing.)

@BoltonBailey I am just going to rewrite it to make clear that I will test this out.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Give claude this market’s link with no context and time it

People are also trading

Will the world mostly converge on a single date format before 31/29/30?
15% chance
Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26)
36% chance
Will numbers be unambiguous before 2045?
11% chance
Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?
29% chance
Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?
32% chance
Conditional on another positive leap second by end of 2035, will it cause any bugs on Manifold?
21% chance
How many Manifold markets will close on January 1st, 2030?
Manifold has another database rollback by EOY 2029?
36% chance
Do Manifold users like "67"? (resolves end of 2026)
33% chance
Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027
38% chance