JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028
18
100Ṁ11572029
6%
Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins
10%
Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses
0.5%
Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway
4%
Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses
17%
Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins
20%
Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses
0.9%
Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway
41%
Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses
This market is a combinatorial market on several outcomes related to JD Vance's potential to become president in or before 2029. It asks 3 questions:
Will Vance become president during the term to which he was elected as vice president in 2024?
Resolves according to this market.
Will he be a Major Party nominee?
Resolves according to whether this market resolves (50%) to JD Vance
Will he win the general election?
Resolves according to whether this market resolves to JD Vance
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
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