This market is a combinatorial market on several outcomes related to JD Vance's potential to become president in or before 2029. It asks 3 questions:
Will Vance become president during the term to which he was elected as vice president in 2024?
Resolves according to this market.
Will he be a Major Party nominee?
Resolves according to whether this market resolves (50%) to JD Vance
Will he win the general election?
Resolves according to whether this market resolves to JD Vance
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
1,000@traders @EvanDaniel has endeavored to make this market more accurate by arbitraging it against other similar markets. But since binary markets are generally easier to work with under the hood, he's been using https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-be-nominated-for-pres and https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi
Would anyone mind if I switch the underlying markets for the latter two questions to be based on these? It seems like it would be beneficial from the standpoint of liquidity in this market and traders here having more options if Evan is incentivized to keep up the arbitrage by making this risk-free as possible.
@BoltonBailey Other risk reduction options include asking @LarsDoucet and @ManifoldPolitics if there's a way we can guarantee those markets resolve consistently with each other.
At the moment I'm not terribly picky about this, but risk reduction for arb work is appreciated!
We could also do something along the lines of /EvanDaniel/2026-midterms-election-weirdness but getting it to trade close enough to 0% to make the arb hedging work sounds hard to do naturally, and captial-inefficient to force.