Will the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claim over 1,000,000 enemy personnel eliminated before the war concludes?
Will the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claim over 1,000,000 enemy personnel eliminated before the war concludes?
13
1kṀ15632029
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As posted on the daily updates at https://twitter.com/DefenceU, or other outlets of the same report. You can see claims over time here: https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/. The war counts as concluded when the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence says it is.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
War in Ukraine ends by May 9, 2025?
9% chance
When will war in Ukraine deescalate to <100 people killed in a year?
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
78% chance
Will the war in Ukraine be officially over by december 2025 ?
40% chance
Will a peacekeeping force of at least 10,000 non-Ukrainian European soldiers be stationed in Ukraine by years' end?
12% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end by 2026
36% chance
Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]
85% chance
How will the war in Ukraine end?
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
82% chance
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
56% chance