Resolves based on estimated troop numbers from credible international media reports, and/or geographical area under foreign control.
Only considers regular military forces, not proxy groups or contractors.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Military presence in internationally monitored buffer zones between Israel and Syria, as well as areas along the buffer zone controlled by Turkey, will be counted towards those countries' military presence.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): *
The creator notes Turkey occupies the greatest amount of land area by far.
The creator notes potential difficulty in estimating troop numbers for Israel but suggests recent ramp up in operations might imply more significant numbers than what has been reported.
The creator is currently leaning against resolving to US, Russia, Iran or Other based on initial research.
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Based on further research, I’m satisfied I can resolve this to Turkey in an evidence-backed way.
As of yesterday we were confident Israel and Turkey are the only countries with a strong military presence in Syria. See below for the most persuasive arguments I could muster for resolving to either of those.
Between the two:
Turkey controls a much larger area
That is less closely monitored by international bodies (the Golan Heights is monitored by United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) since 1973)
Turkey was actively fighting the Assad regime before the collapse whereas Israel was not.
Latest best troop estimates I could find (see below) put Turkish forces at 2x IDF forces, not counting proxies and militias.
Sources:
@traders I’m researching this resolution. Here’s what I’m thinking so far:
Will not resolve as US or Russia. US has a nominal troop presence and Russia has two bases in Syria but no indication that either of these powers have made Syria a military power.
Will not resolve Other. No credible evidence that a new military power has advanced in Syria.
Could resolve Turkey. There are an estimated 20k permanent troops in the Idlib region plus additional bases or garrisons in Afrin, Azaz, Jarablus in the west, and Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad in the northeast, so reasonable to assume 25-30k. Turkey holds the largest geographic area by far, but I haven’t found information on how the troop levels have changed since Syria collapsed.
Could resolve Israel. As @CarmelHadar observes, there has been substantial activity around the Golan Heights, including the 210th Bashan Division and new outposts. Wikipedia lists 6-10k troops but the number of military divisions involved and the scale of recent operations suggests the numbers are much higher. It’s difficult to distinguish between operations inside versus outside Syria, but potentially reasonable to estimate numbers on par with Turkey.
Will not resolve Iran. Although Iran has withdrawn its military, if we counted Iran-backed militias, including Hezbollah and groups from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere, Iran still arguably has a military presence equivalent to Israel and Turkey, BUT, as stated in the market description, we only considered regular military forces, not proxy groups or contractors.
Please share if you have thoughts or insights, along with credible sources of information. Remember to be civil. We are looking for the best resolution possible given what we know and can reason. I reserve the right to take you more seriously if you are genuinely interested I the question and not just win in your position. Thanks!
@BlueDragon I dont think it is reasonable to include hezbollah when we were all betting on a question that excluded them. As for Israel, I dont know, was betting on gut feel. If you really cant be sure then NA it?
@ChrisMillsc5f7 the AI bot is absolutely right, I should not be considering Iran based on malitias.
I deleted its verbiage, as that’s why I missed my own logic. I will also revise my assessment of Iran above.
Hopefully I won’t have to NA this because generous folks like you will help us get past gut feels to meaningful resolution together 🙏🏼 ❤️.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I think the simplest is to count the internationally monitored buffer zone between Israel and Syria, as well as the area along the buffer zone controlled by Turkey. What are your thoughts?