Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
Itβs impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries canβt be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:
It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.
This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Rallies in favor of policies or governance do not count as qualifying protests.
1,000People are also trading
@FecalAbhuman please read market description. The protest tracker is updated monthly. The schedule is not consistent. There is also an explanation for ongoing protests, to avoid the obvious tautological problems with resolving yes in an ongoing situation every month.
Netherlands Gaza protest in Amsterdam, 250.000 claimed.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen That's what he called it, but it's a protest against immigration and a government whose policies enable it.
Why is this resolving early? EDIT: Nevermind
July resolution:
Bangladesh
India
Taiwan II
No market (would have resolved):
Malaysia
Ukraine
Lebanon is ongoing right now, Lebanese military is deployed in response
@JussiVilleHeiskanen check the ABOUT tab (on the side). There is a YouTube video and some salient definitions and explanations.
The most significant clarification I can offer is that rallies IN FAVOR of policies or governance do not count.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen all the II labeled entries have an original. It will pop up when you search. Iβll gladly take your input and add the month. Canβt right now as Iβm camping.
@BlueDragon There is one now in Kenya, though of course whether it ends up on the list, is another matter. Unsure how to add the possibility that there may be another later again.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen please feel free to add it! If it shows up on the list I will resolve it. If not it remains an option going forward.
@BlueDragon the issue is that it is in the news right now, so it would only be a prediction on whether it is reported on
@JussiVilleHeiskanen well, whether it ends up on the Carnagie Foundation list, yes. You can read more about their methodology on their website.
@BlueDragon Ahah, this may be the most germane link...
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/04/misunderstanding-global-protests?lang=en
@BlueDragon Hmm. even that link above is more analysis of their results, rather than their methodology. The only thing I found about methodology was about their study of climate protests, which told which types protests did not qualify. But I have yet to find a subpage specifically about their methodology. I'll keep searching though. Thank you for piqueing my curiosity.