Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:

https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en

It’s impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.

Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.

Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:

  • It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.

  • This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Rallies in favor of policies or governance do not count as qualifying protests.