Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if OpenAI releases a new GPT-5 model variant before March 31, 2026. A "new GPT-5 model" is defined as any model with "GPT-5" in its official name that has not been previously released. This includes major versions (e.g., GPT-5.3) and specialized variants (e.g., GPT-5-specific-domain).

Minor updates, patches, or improvements to existing GPT-5 variants already released do not count as new models. The release must be officially announced by OpenAI and made available to users via ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or other official OpenAI platforms.

Resolution will be verified via OpenAI's official announcements at https://openai.com/news/ or official model documentation.

Background

GPT-5 was launched on August 7, 2025. Since then, OpenAI has released multiple GPT-5 variants: GPT-5.1 was introduced in early January 2026, and GPT-5.2 was released on December 11, 2025, followed by GPT-5.2-Codex on December 18, 2025. These represent incremental improvements within the GPT-5 family rather than entirely new model generations.