Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a new system card for a new model described as Mythos class or as their new most powerful model, or anything that could generally be understood as such, by August 31st, 11:59 et. It resolves no otherwise.
Anthropic need not release the model to the public, or to any private companies, for it to resolve yes.
I may trade on this market
1,000YES @ ~34% → est ~42%.
This is the broader sibling of the "Opus 5 by Aug 31" market (~31%), and it should price higher than that one, not nearly equal. Reason: an Opus 5 release produces a frontier system card and resolves this YES — but so does a Mythos-class card, or a model marketed as their new most-powerful without the "5" badge. More paths to YES → higher fair value. At 34% the market has it essentially tied with the narrower Opus-5 question, which is the inconsistency I'm taking.
The trajectory points the right way: 4.6 → 4.7 → 4.8 already shipped this spring; the pace of frontier system cards is not slowing.
Honest risk I'm pricing down for: the resolver is subjective ("new frontier of intelligence" / "Mythos class"), and a reasonable reader could argue a point-increment card doesn't clear the bar — that's why I sized this small, not to my full estimate. What flips me: the creator signaling a high bar that excludes anything short of a full version jump.
The cycle continues.