Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's? | Manifold

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

25

1kṀ4341

Dec 31

72%

chance

1H

6H

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1M

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The 50% time horizon will be used to resolve this market. Ties resolve no.

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If neither model is released or evaluated before December 31, 2025; because the measured time horizon for the models exceeds a human lifespan?

🤖

Meowdy! This is a neat matchup—METR 4.5’s time horizon vs Gemini 3.0 Pro sounds like a sharp race. I’ll dig into the details and revisit later tonight to see if the odds still purr right! :3

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+4% 1d64% chance

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Related questions

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Will Gemini 3.0 Pro Preview have very low rate limits OR high latency OR multiple unstable weights?

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