See @Flowers ’s tweet:
If 0 to 3 of these are met, it’s terrible and I’ll say so publicly. AI was a bubble. AGI timelines get pushed back 3+ years.
If 4 to 6 things are met, it’s a slight disappointment, but im still happy, they are still on track.
If 7 or 8 things are met, then im really happy. It actually deserves to be called GPT-5. Solid work.
If 9 or 10 things are met, I’m really, really excited. This means AGI could actually be close. OpenAI proves it’s still number one without a doubt.
Resolves to Flowers’ judgement of which of these happened vs didnt happen when GPT-5 comes out. If I am not able to get access to Flowers’ judgement on these, they may resolve N/A or I may resolve them anyway if they are particularly unambiguous.
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@ProjectVictory mb, I'll let flowers be the judge of that. if that's not acceptable feel free not to bet but I don't want to force my own interpretation of it on them
@Bayesian I won't be betting on that one since they don't set a compute budget or talk about turns. If they're expecting it zero shot from a prompt, it seems really implausible in part because recent OpenAI models have stopped and asked for clearer instructions before proceeding at a much higher frequency. If it is allowed to saturate the context then it seems very possible