This market matches AI's Societal Effects: YouGov Poll from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

See the other manifold questions here

Resolution criteria

Formula: (benefits outweigh) - (drawbacks outweigh), where each side = sum of "greatly" + "somewhat"

Interpretation:

• Positive = more believe benefits outweigh drawbacks

• Negative = more believe drawbacks outweigh benefits

Acceptable question wordings: Either the "benefits vs drawbacks" phrasing or the "positive vs negative effect on society" phrasing (see the "More Info" section on the website version of this question) are acceptable for resolution. If YouGov uses a different wording that the resolver judges comparable, that may also be used. If no comparable poll is conducted in the last 6 months of 2026, the question will be resolved as ambiguous.

Eli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions.

Buckets are left-inclusive: e.g., -10 to 0pp includes -10pp but not 0pp.