Neuralink: How many years between medical and non-medical applications with widespread availability?
16
1kṀ3832035
35%
Medical application is permanently discontinued before widespread availability
9%
After widespread availability of Medical application, non-medical application is discontinued
4%
0
5%
1
6%
2
7%
3
6%
4
5%
5
4%
6
4%
7
4%
8
3%
9
10%
10+
Resolves to a linear interpolation of the nearest years, if both occur. If either application is discontinued, or Neuralink closes down or similar, the appropriate special option resolves YES.
Medical application with widespread availability: A Neuralink device that is available to the average person dealing with ALS, or quadreplegia, or some other major disability, in some major country.
Non-medical application with widespread availability: A Neuralink device that is available to the average person of some major country, regardless of their health.
If the release date for medical and non-medical applications is ambiguous, it may resolve to the judgement of a group of mods, or similar.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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