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MANIFOLD
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
214
Ṁ1kṀ230k
2030
28%
chance

Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.

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I think this market says more about how people underrate Apple than how they overrate Anthropic.

All you humanitarians are sitting there not realizing the moat's only getting deeper and the alligators in it are only getting fatter.

@MaxA which side is this an advocacy for 😅

@Bayesian /buddy pet

bought Ṁ250 NO

@MaxA one thing you can do is ask Claude what it thinks of this question. Either you trust it or you don’t. If you don’t, I don’t know why you’re betting YES. If you do, I don’t know why you’re betting YES.

@MachiNi For the next year or so, I'll still be smarter than my AI.

@MaxA so you think that within the next 3 to 4 years, AIs that are less intelligent than you now will become profitable enough to 1. Explode current valuation and 2. Crush most competition, while the second largest company in the world, which shows no sign of weakening, somehow collapses. Is that the bet?

@MachiNi Not sure how profitability has managed to enter the chat.

@MaxA how is an ai company going to flip Apple in market cap if it continues losing money, which is basically the case for all these companies for now. Especially after going public, do you think shareholders will not want profitability to ‘enter the chat’?

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

Ah the urge to manufacture profit for leagues… tsk tsk tsk @JonasVollmer

@MachiNi nah, just think it's underrated. already ranking #1 with plenty of margin :)

filled a Ṁ500 NO at 22% order

@JonasVollmer it’s one of the most overpriced markets on all of manifold.

@traders willing to sell at good prices

@JeromeHPowell 👀

do i get an exclusive offer mr chairman?

@realDonaldTrump we could call it........quantitative easing

(yes, yes, i know that is not a good comp but it sounds funny)

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 23% order

@JeromeHPowell some NO orders starting at 21. Can’t afford to do much more.

@Bayesian i would sell at 23, if you want

@JeromeHPowell yeah ok order up

I'm willing to sell at 21, any takers?

@JeromeHPowell nvm i dont want that much, theres limits up already

@realDonaldTrump a few, but still a ton of slippage if i sell out