emotional hedge

They're up to 2.5 in flash and pro and iirc (and my googling serves me right) still don't have an ultra 2.0.

Anthropic no longer releases Opus models. I think the scaling laws are practically somewhat dead[0], and the big players have abandoned the super big model model.

[0] By that I mean a combination of: diminishing returns, distilling working pretty well, financial diminishing returns (e.g. gpt 4.5 ) , scaling laws actually being dead and effectiveness of test time compute

@FergusArgyll I think in a non reasoning regime they d be scaling them more, but with reasoning which u can do more of with smaller models there’s a tradeoff and optimal size to maximize intelligence for a set amt of compute that is smaller than in a scale only world

@CrypticQccZ @draaglom why the buy and sell if you dont mind sharing

@Bayesian i realized i wasn't super convinced by the pixel leak and decided to revert mostly to my base-rate from the more reliable leak i posted earlier (around 90%). so i had to derisk because i have veyr little mana. if i could trade off EV i would have bought more YES

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1kchqb3/gemini_25_ultra_reportedly_available_with_gemini/

This should trade near 100% now

EDIT: maybe this is fake

@CrypticQccZ seems fake

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bard/comments/1kbosc7/potential_gemini_ultra_leak/