Please add answers!

The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective. I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.

Resolution Criteria:

• Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved. This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.

• Resolution is specifically about the using the phrase Artificial General Intelligence or AGI. Saying ASI has been achieved will not count as a yes resolution.

• The statement needs to clearly say this. Something of the sort "I believe model XYZ is AGI". "I personally think model XYZ is AGI". "I think it's safe to say AGI is already here".

• If such a statement is made publicly, the market resolves YES immediately, even if the person changed their mind later.

I chose EOY 2030 as the cutoff date, because as of creation, Metaculus predicts AGI in January 2031. However the resolution of this market will remain at EOY 2030 as the Metaculus market moves.