I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"
This market resolves YES if I'm walking around and a humanoid robot casually crosses my path. Little sweeper robots are not enough, nor are the slightly more human looking ones at sushi restaurants
I will not purposely seek one out, and I will not bet on this market
Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does travel and plans to visit Las Vegas and other Tier 1 cities within the year, increasing the chances of encountering a humanoid robot.
Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A humanoid robot must be able to move its arms to do things (not just a mannequin on wheels). Shoulder movement is likely required; hip movement is uncertain and not strictly required.
Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the minimum criteria for a qualifying humanoid robot:
Must have four limbs (most important aspect)
Wheels are acceptable (does not need to walk on legs)
Must be able to move its arms to do things
A mannequin on wheels does not qualify
Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A remote operated humanoid robot would still resolve YES.
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https://manifold.markets/Bandors/humanoid-robot-walking-around-me-wi-QcypugynEd
New market for a three years timeframe
• Wheels have the first mover advantage by thousands of years.
• Wheels that work in the mud already exist.
• Other mechanics could be invented to mount stubbornly shaped and sized curbs, or other such obstacles in a normal urban environment more reasonably than legs.
• Legs cost more energy per step than wheels do over the same distance.
• The business case for legs on robots that walk around mundane street environments is mostly "looks cool".
• Your company gets laughed at if it's deployed humanoid walking robots for deliveries that keep falling over, and acting in otherwise stupid ways.
• If a robot benefits from having humanoid flexibility to, for example do mountain rescue, then it can equally be flying, or have 4 legs, or grappling parts, or otherwise not be humanoid.
So what's left?
…
Inside an amusement park.
Performing on a stage, or in an attraction.
Strolling around outside an expensive or flashy place, perhaps also being helpful.
📣 "Welcome Human!"
@AlanTennant This robot has wheels but still would resolve YES. Four limbs is the most important aspect.
@Bandors And I would think a significant frequency of pivoting at least the hips and shoulders, even if no bending of the knees and elbows. Not a mannequin on wheels.
@AlanTennant mannequin on a skateboard no. Ability to move its arms to do stuff at least. Kinda loose tho I'm not sure if it would need hips, probably shoulders
@Bandors It's not a walking robot with 4 wheels like the picture and no hips, that's mannequin mode with decorative arms.
@Bandors A lot of that article is a push. It's only 1 type of robot, from one company, it hasn't even close to doubled between the last two bars, it's instead tailed off, and no scale indicators on an image on a post from the CEO of said company.