I will run a Manifold poll 1 month after the official Gemini 3 release asking whether or not it exceeded expectations. Resolves to results of that poll.

This market will be run the same way as this prior market:
https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/gpt-5-exceeds-expectations

If Gemini 3 does not release by the end of the market deadline, market resolves N/A. To the best of my ability, the market will be closed at or near the release date to prevent post-hoc trading.